In 2020, a group of ISyE Master’s students enrolled in the course ISyE 6320/HS 6400 Health Systems Practice, worked on a class project where they used modeling and analytics to support global polio eradication efforts. 

One of these students, Yuming Sun, later joined the H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering (ISyE) Ph.D. program, under the guidance of Professors Pinar Keskinocak and  Lauren Steimle. Sun embarked on a journey that would seamlessly blend academia and public health, leading to important contributions in the fight against polio. 

Yuming’s dedication and innovative approach, which has also been supported by key collaborators from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), earned him many recognitions for his research, including Honorable Mention as a Graduate presenter in the Medicine and Public Health category at the 2024 American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Annual Meeting. 

The AAAS supports the advancement of science, engineering, and innovation across the globe – while recognizing and fostering diverse research solutions for all.

Yuming’s research on “Modeling the Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Outbreaks and Interventions” explores the complex dynamics of polio outbreaks and the effectiveness of various vaccination strategies, particularly in under-vaccinated communities.

Tackling Polio 

What began as a class project blossomed into a fully funded development, driven by the promising results of the team’s initial work. Later on, advanced by Sun, was an established detailed model of poliovirus transmission, sought to balance scientific rigor with practical applicability. 

The team looked at the widespread use of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) in outbreak response, which while effective, has unintended consequences in under-vaccinated communities. The live attenuated virus in OPV could revert to a form that acts and spreads like wild poliovirus. A new novel type vaccine was created which has less risk of reversion, but the role of this new vaccine in outbreak response, was unclear.

The model has several features capturing the complex dynamics of polio transmission, such as varying risk across subpopulations defined by age and geography, waning immunity - induced by prior infections or vaccinations - and virus reversion. 

They grouped regions based on geographic location, historical vaccination coverage, and accessibility, creating a nuanced framework to understand and predict polio outbreaks. 

The COVID-19 pandemic further compounded these issues by disrupting routine immunizations and delaying outbreak response campaigns, leaving many individuals unvaccinated and vulnerable.

The model also incorporated the decreased population mixing during COVID-19 lockdowns, reflecting the pandemic's profound impact on public health efforts. 

While the model is general and can be applied to any country or region, the team used data from northern Nigeria for model calibration, given the outbreaks in the region and under-vaccinated children in hard-to-reach areas. 

In an extensive computational study, the team evaluated various “intervention” scenarios, generating interesting results and insights. 

By collaborating closely with the CDC and leveraging real-world data, the team aimed to provide actionable insights that could guide strategies to eradicate polio in Nigeria and prevent its resurgence in neighboring countries.

“Our results emphasized the importance of novel OPV type 2 in reducing the size of outbreaks,” said Sun. The research also highlighted the need for “more rounds of outbreak supplemental immunization activities during outbreak response in under-vaccinated regions, which exhibit persistent transmission and delay the progress towards stopping outbreaks.” 

From a logistics perspective, “a quicker outbreak response would avert more paralytic cases and require fewer supplemental immunization rounds to stop the outbreaks,” added Sun.

Yuming’s journey from a classroom project to a pivotal public health initiative highlights the importance of hands-on learning activities, demonstrating the power of collaboration and the significant impact of advancing research to addressing real-world problems.

As the battle against polio continues, Yuming Sun and their team's work serves as a supportive contribution to the ongoing efforts led by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) of which CDC is a partner.

While their enthusiasm, innovation, and commitment to public health are commendable, they recognize that there is still much work to be done alongside long-standing collaborators in the fight against infectious diseases.

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Camille Carpenter, ISyE Communications Manager